War is Boring: Mixed Signals from China Point to Security Dilemma

World Politics Review
By: David Axe
Feb 17, 2010

The last two weeks have seen a mixed message from Beijing regarding U.S.-Chinese military ties. The ambiguous signals are indicative of China’s continuing fixation on Taiwan and its uncertainty regarding its place among world powers.

In January, the U.S. moved forward on a long-delayed, $6.4 billion arms deal for Taiwan that includes assault helicopters, surface-to-air missiles and mine-hunting vessels. The deal had initially been approved by the Bush administration in 2008, but the new administration under President Barack Obama was slow to issue the individual contracts necessary to provide the weapons.

Under the terms of the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, the U.S. is required to provide for the self-defense of the island, which neither China nor the U.S. officially recognizes as an independent country. Taiwan and China split in 1949 following a bloody civil war.

Beijing has vowed to reunite China and Taiwan, by force if necessary. In 1996, the U.S. Navy sailed two aircraft carriers into the Taiwan Strait in reaction to Chinese threats against the island. Since then, China has spent billions of dollars buying submarines and anti-ship missiles meant to counter American carriers. But Chinese investment has not, as yet, produced a military capable of conquering Taiwan.

Citing the arms deal’s “serious harm and impacts on Sino-U.S. military relations,” Beijing announced it would cancel planned visits between U.S. and Chinese forces. This is China’s standard reaction to any U.S. military cooperation with Taiwan.

But Beijing’s move to sever military ties failed to halt joint U.S.-Chinese security patrols in earthquake-ravaged Haiti. And Beijing said it would allow the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Nimitz to visit Hong Kong this week.

The mixed message is indicative of China’s internal confusion regarding its place in the world, according to security experts interviewed by World Politics Review. The experts were unanimous in describing Taiwan as Beijing’s overwhelming strategic priority. But they said the Taiwan fixation is complicated by China’s parallel efforts to become an otherwise responsible member of the regional security framework for Asia.     more …